Global powers and regional powers have to develop a vision beyond their own borders. The United States of America is a good example of that. The emerging powers like China and India have to follow a similar vision. There are signs of China making some tentative moves around the world. India remains an emerging economy, still looking inwards and lacking a global vision. Rajiv Gandhi initiated the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) with a regional vision in 1985. It soon became a forum for India-Pakistan to hurl insults at each other.
India wants to be a world power but lacks a strategic vision. It has an overwhelming population in the South-Asian region as well as a significantly large economy compared to its immediate neighbors. Yet it is not liked by a single country on the subcontinent. India must realize that it cannot become even a regional power without significant bilateral trade with every single country in the region. India has to formulate a long term vision for the ‘Greater India’ i.e. the area from Afghanistan to Burma and Tibet to Sri Lanka. This would require a strategic forward thinking!
The population of India is estimated at 1.2 billion and the central government estimates it to rise to 1.7 billion by 2050. This is an absurd estimate and is more of a wishful thinking. If you break it down in segments and study the rise since 1947, you are likely to come to a different conclusion. If my methodology is correct then India is likely to have a population of around 2 billion by 2050 and then it is likely to stabilize. It would be prudent to take the higher figure to draw future plans. Besides, if we are talking about ‘Greater India’, you need to factor in a total population of 3 billion people by 2050. This number is bound to shock serious people and our future planners. Superpowers have super-burdens!
India is the only country that could stand with the United States of America and the European Union as the third leg to the global power structure. China is not going to make it to 2050 because of bad fundamentals. Let us assume that it is not a factor and continue with the discussion. India needs to plan for 3 billion people of South Asia as soon as 2050. It needs to work towards producing three times the yield from every hector of cultivatable land within the current borders. In other words our food production should be 3 times our current agriculture crop. Even more important is the management of our water resources. India can not afford to waste our rain-water. The earlier we learn to harvest our monsoon bounty, the better off would we be in our water resources. We also need to plan for health and education for 3 billion people of the Indian subcontinent and not just 2 billion Indians. We do not need to create SAARC or other such ego-loaded forums. This is India’s burden and we need to learn to bear it if we want to become a world power. India, just THINK about it!
Filed under: Indian Politics, International Tagged: | China and India, emerging economy, emerging powers, Global powers, Greater India, Greater Indian Common Market, India-Pakistan, Rajiv Gandhi, regional powers, SAARC, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, South-Asian region, The United States of America
